Trendaavat aiheet
#
Bonk Eco continues to show strength amid $USELESS rally
#
Pump.fun to raise $1B token sale, traders speculating on airdrop
#
Boop.Fun leading the way with a new launchpad on Solana.
Jim Bianco
Jim Bianco kirjasi uudelleen
Bitcoin Has Been Co-Opted – @biancoresearch Warns The Fed Is Losing Control
0:00 Intro
0:50 Trump Vs The Fed
3:35 Shadow Fed Strategy
6:17 Broken Fed Structure
9:16 Why Rate Cuts Fail
12:12 Trump’s Real Estate Logic
15:34 Fiscal Dominance Explained
18:41 Housing Crisis Trap
21:44 Bitcoin As A Risk Asset
24:29 Bonds vs Stocks Outlook
27:22 Stablecoins And The Genius Act
30:48 Broken Payments System
33:34 TradFi Co-Opting Crypto
36:47 Tokenized Assets Debate
41:06 Bitcoin Co-Opted?
43:30 Solana’s Lost Mission
45:57 Crypto Maxis & FOMO
49:07 Trump’s Strategy Shift
50:42 Growing Out Of Debt
53:04 Only Bonds Can Stop It
71,93K
Many do, ADP, UI Claims, and Employ surveys by ISM, NFIB, the Conf. Board, UMich, and regional FRBs.
Some of the list above might be better than the BLS.
Accuracy does not make money. It's replicating the flawed/incorrect inputs (the BLS!) that the Fed uses to move rates.
Reverse engineering broken models is hard.
3.8. klo 03.39
If you think you can create better jobs numbers than the BLS then great, probably harder than you think but if you can, you can make a shitload doing macro trading and absolutely nothing is stopping you.
43,12K
Kevin Warsh betting to replace Powell (blue) has been surging today.
To be clear, Trump would be nominating a replacement Fed governor, and I believe it will happen soon (within the next few weeks) with Trump demanding that the Senate approve this nomination before the September 17 FOMC meeting. This would ensure three Governor votes to cut rates.
It would be understood that this person would also be Powell's replacement, which would require a second nomination and confirmation at a later date.
2.8. klo 04.36
Governor Kugler did not attend or vote in the FOMC meeting this week (the official vote was 9 to 2). The Fed said we was attending to a "personal matter." Two days later, she steps down. (Kugler's last day is August 8.)
I wish her well.
---
Kugler's seat as a Fed governor was going to end in January 2026. She was not going to be reappointed as Trump needs this seat to appoint Powell's successor (unless he picks current Fed Governor Chris Waller).
Trump can now nominate Powell's successor at any time and demand that the Senate confirm his nominee before the next FOMC meeting on September 17. This means the FOMC will have AT LEAST three solid votes to cut rates.
In my opinion, the probability that Trump will move to fire Powell, most likely "for cause," around the renovation of the Fed buildings, is 45%. This is less than 50%, but significantly higher than the betting markets currently have it, at around 15%.
Furthermore, I suggest that Powell's firing will likely hinge on his speech at Jackson Hole at the end of the month.
If Powell opens the door to a September cut, Trump will not fire him.
If Powell pushes back on a September cut, Trump will move to fire him.
Powell will not leave, and they will go to court to sort this out. At this point, everything hits the fan.
85,66K
Governor Kugler did not attend or vote in the FOMC meeting this week (the official vote was 9 to 2). The Fed said we was attending to a "personal matter." Two days later, she steps down. (Kugler's last day is August 8.)
I wish her well.
---
Kugler's seat as a Fed governor was going to end in January 2026. She was not going to be reappointed as Trump needs this seat to appoint Powell's successor (unless he picks current Fed Governor Chris Waller).
Trump can now nominate Powell's successor at any time and demand that the Senate confirm his nominee before the next FOMC meeting on September 17. This means the FOMC will have AT LEAST three solid votes to cut rates.
In my opinion, the probability that Trump will move to fire Powell, most likely "for cause," around the renovation of the Fed buildings, is 45%. This is less than 50%, but significantly higher than the betting markets currently have it, at around 15%.
Furthermore, I suggest that Powell's firing will likely hinge on his speech at Jackson Hole at the end of the month.
If Powell opens the door to a September cut, Trump will not fire him.
If Powell pushes back on a September cut, Trump will move to fire him.
Powell will not leave, and they will go to court to sort this out. At this point, everything hits the fan.
2.8. klo 03.37
Kugler's decision to leave the board about six months early gives Trump a sooner-than-expected opportunity to put someone on the Fed board, including the person who could succeed Powell as chair when his term ends.
176,49K
Johtavat
Rankkaus
Suosikit