Wanted to expand on a comment I made to @greg_ip on the trade impact of the h1 slide in the dollar on trade -- I don't expect it to have much of an impact because the slide just reversed the runup of last fall. The 24m trailing average of the dollar is still up 1/

If the dollar had stayed at its q1 levels it would have pulled a lagged measure of the dollar up, & that would have impacted trade. But as it is the lagged dollar impulse (even more so in 36m average of the dollar) is still negative 2/

The currency move that is impacting trade, in my view, is the real depreciation of the Chinese yuan! 3/

What of the euro? Its broad real value has been remarkably stable the last 15 years (it is buffered by all the trade that the euro area does with its European neighbors, an extra regional euro index would be interesting) 4/

And of course the real value of most Asian currencies other than the yuan remains incredibly weak ... (these countries also have bigger CA surpluses as a share of GDP than China does, tho China under reports its surplus!) 5/5