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Joshua.D
Senior leek, 13 years of practitioner. Hidden Mountain Observation On-chain analyst
SOL large-value monitoring signal channel: https://t.co/JajrDKLFtL
Monotonous
Outdated trends
Repetitive concepts
I really don't want to do this anymore
Only NEW represents rebirth

Joshua.DJan 20, 19:33
Dear "on-chain beggars" (Degen), cultivate yourself with this to preserve your capital in the PVP market and seize profits.
Meme On-Chain Dog Beating Technique
Core Principles:
Heavy investment at the bottom like laying a big egg, small amounts to test the waters. Swing trading without attachment, to prevent the market makers from cooking the pot. Running fast is the hard truth, achieving a flow state without dog traders.
1. Beat the Double Dogs: When the double bottom stabilizes, heavily invest to catch the rebound.
2. Beat the Dog's Head: When the bullish sentiment is soaring, decisively sell and don’t stand guard.
3. Counter the Dog's Rear: When there’s a sharp drop with a red tail, specifically eat the dead cat bounce.
4. Seize the Staff from the Mastiff: If the trend is wrong, run at lightning speed, preserving capital is the most important.
5. Press the Dog's Back: Small amounts to test the depth, don’t shoot until you see the rabbit.
6. Point the Dog to the Sky: When big influencers shout, ride the wave and enjoy the ride.
7. Evil Dog Blocks the Way: When there’s a hint of FUD, reduce your position and keep cash.
8. Beat the Scruffy Dog: When stuck in a trash project, quickly withdraw during a rebound.
9. Slant Beat the Dog's Back: In a volatile market, take small swings, accumulating little by little without greed.
10. Press the Dog's Head Down: Stick to your psychological price level, don’t act until the target is hit.
11. No Dogs in the World: When the market feeling is unified, there are no dogs in the mind, only money.
#meme
150
In fact, if we set aside emotions and objectively analyze these two viewpoints purely from the perspective of the market and capital flow.
First, regarding "Bitcoin becoming a dollar asset, losing its independence." What this big shot said is true; Bitcoin has indeed changed. It has transformed from an alternative asset that "fights against" the dollar into a "dollar asset" that is highly correlated with the U.S. stock market.
However, from an objective standpoint, this change in attribute actually supports the price more than it suppresses it. In the past, Bitcoin relied on retail investors' faith, and could drop 80% with the slightest disturbance. Now, the interests tied to it include ETFs, publicly traded companies (like MicroStrategy), and even national strategies. This "institutionalization" may have made it lose some of its allure in the eyes of geeks, but it has solidly raised its price floor.
To drop back to $20,000 means that giants like BlackRock would have to take losses, MicroStrategy would face liquidation, and even the tech sector of the U.S. stock market would have to crash. In a world still dominated by the dollar, becoming a "core dollar asset" actually adds a layer of safety net against price drops for Bitcoin.
Second, regarding "computing power shifting to AI leading to a drop in coin prices." There is a technical detail here: Bitcoin is currently mined primarily using specialized mining machines (ASICs), which can only mine and cannot be repurposed for AI computing power. The only things that can be transformed are the facilities and power supply.
Therefore, the decline in computing power is more about the survival of the fittest within the industry—inefficient miners are shutting down. Historically, a decrease in computing power often indicates that the market is "popping bubbles," reducing future selling pressure rather than being a trigger for a crash. As long as the Bitcoin network can still produce blocks normally, fluctuations in computing power are simply market adjustment behaviors, making it difficult to directly pull the price down to $20,000.
Objective analysis: Although the vision has become blurred, the moat (capital volume and compliance) has actually deepened.

大宇15 hours ago
A big shot said it's not surprising if Bitcoin drops to $20,000, and I asked for the reason.
Yesterday, I chatted for half a day with a Bitcoin big shot and got some astonishing viewpoints—though I don't fully agree, I think his research is quite in-depth, so I’ll share it for reference and would like to hear everyone’s opinions.
This big shot is not the type who is just lucky with a lot of money; rather, he is a highly knowledgeable frontier investor. He has already sold over 80% of his Bitcoin, keeping only 20%, which is negligible compared to his wealth.
He mentioned two reasons:
First, Bitcoin has lost its most important characteristic of "countering fiat currency" and has become part of dollar assets.
Originally, Bitcoin was meant to counter fiat currency, but now it has been tied to the U.S. and the dollar by Wall Street. No one can say Bitcoin is American; technically and emotionally, it can't be said that way—but in fact, that is exactly what has happened.
He pointed out that the current global macro environment is that the U.S. is promoting "America First," prioritizing the dollar and U.S. debt. Their biggest goal is to solidify the status of the U.S. and the dollar.
Bitcoin and blockchain are also part of this grand strategy, whether it's the genius bill or the recently proposed CLARITY Act, especially with the U.S. saying that confiscated Bitcoin will be used as national reserves—everything points to the U.S. recognizing Bitcoin and supporting blockchain.
However, this support has both advantages and disadvantages. The good aspects are already visible to everyone, but the downsides are becoming increasingly apparent—Bitcoin is losing its core independence to counter global fiat currencies.
China and Russia will not buy Bitcoin; they only buy gold. Only the U.S. and its allies will support it, but in the eyes of U.S. allies, Bitcoin is similar to all dollar assets but carries greater risks, making it even less justifiable to hold. Almost all U.S. states have also opposed Bitcoin as national reserves.
He said that on-chain data shows that Wall Street is continuously buying Bitcoin, including MicroStrategy, but the more they buy, the greater the impact on Bitcoin's independence. The biggest player in Bitcoin is now the U.S., and the disadvantages outweigh the advantages.
Currently, global geopolitical risks are increasing. Even Denmark, a U.S. ally, has sold off U.S. debt. The U.S. is fighting a dangerous but must-not-lose global financial war. If this battle is lost, U.S. debt will collapse, and the dollar's credit system will fail—under the current circumstances, capital betting on "America's Bitcoin" will decrease.
This is also why we often see large funds selling Bitcoin, and the resolve is growing stronger, because Bitcoin has lost its maximum function of "countering fiat currency" and has instead become part of the dollar—leading to the worst-case scenario: even those who are optimistic about the U.S. no longer need to buy Bitcoin, the highest-risk asset, and can choose to invest in U.S. stocks, which offer higher liquidity and certainty.
Second, the entire network's computing power is shifting towards AI.
AI is an unprecedented event that will change human history, a hundred times greater than the Industrial Revolution, and will happen a hundred times faster. Many mining farms can already switch to data centers at any time, and the short-term returns from data centers are currently higher than Bitcoin, with long-term potential likely far exceeding it, especially for those listed on U.S. stock exchanges. Engaging in data centers and reaping the AI dividends is a long-term, lucrative path, so many people are moving towards data centers.
Bitcoin's computing power has decreased by nearly 20% in recent months, and mining difficulty has been adjusted down for the seventh time, meaning there are fewer miners, making it easier to mine.
He said that the latest mining machines have a mining cost of over $30,000, and as computing power continues to decline, it wouldn't be surprising if costs drop to over $20,000. Moreover, these transitioning mining companies will need to sell a lot of coins to support their capital during the transition.
Considering past mining crises, it wouldn't be unexpected if it drops below the shutdown price.
He asked me, isn't it just MicroStrategy that is optimistic about Bitcoin and buying it? They can't turn back; are they the most correct in the world? I was left speechless.
He also said that now ETH has risen from $800 to $3,000, isn't that just TOM LEE and Yi Lihua buying and shouting it up? Are they definitely the most correct? I had no words.
In the end, he said that back in the day, this group of geeks bought Bitcoin because it countered fiat currency, but now that it is so deeply tied to the dollar, it doesn't feel as fun as before. There are so many good assets in the world; it’s not as sexy anymore.
****
After our chat, I thought about it all night and couldn't believe it could drop to $20,000, let alone $60,000 being difficult, but the extreme situations he mentioned aren't 100% impossible, right?
I’d like to hear everyone’s opinions.
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