BREAKING The OBR says it informed Rachel Reeves as far back as ***September 17*** that the downgrade in productivity forecasts was offset by 'increases in real wages and inflation'. The deficit was in fact just £2.5billion By October 31 that deficit had turned into net positive of £4.2billion. That basic forecast did not change from that point So from what the OBR is saying it looks like Rachel Reeves and the Treasury were briefing ahead of the Budget that there was a £20billion black hole in the public finances that didn't actually exist The £30billion worth of tax rises in the Budget are predominantly a consequence of her decisions to increase public spending, particularly on welfare, and have £21.7billion worth of headroom As @Peston @PippaCrerar @hzeffman have all pointed out, it makes the Budget build up - and the narrative that big tax rises were coming because of a deterioration in the public finances - look frankly surreal in hindsight

The OBR says that the 'really big surprise' in the forecasts was the huge risk local authorities now pose to Britain's financial stability, particularly because of spiralling SEND costs Richard Hughes says that the special needs programme is putting 'enormous pressure' on local authorities and has led to 'double-digit upward revisions to borrowing' He says it added up to £22billion to financial pressures. 'Local authorities became suddenly a big source of risk and pressure' The OBR points out that the government has said that the 'full cost of SEND provision' will be absorbed 'within departmental budgets BUT no savings have been identified to offset the £6billion worth of costs The OBR says that this would lead to a 4.9 per cent in mainstream school spending per pupil in 2028-29

BREAKING: Welfare spending will be ***£16billion higher*** by 2029-30 in the wake of the Budget, the OBR has forecast * The uprating of benefits in line with inflation will cost £3.1billion * Higher unemployment will increase UC spending by £1.8billion * More people moving onto disability benefits will cost £1.4billion * The u-turns on PIP and winter fuel payments and decision to scrap the two-child benefit limit will cost £9bn